Delhi May See 35-70,000 Covid Cases at Maximum, But Hospitalizations Peak at 12,000: IIT Model | Latest India News

The number of Covid-19 cases in the nation’s capital is expected to peak around January 15, with the number of daily infections reaching between 35,000 and 70,000, IIT scientists predicted on Saturday.

Preliminary projections from scientists who modeled Sutra – a mathematical model developed at IIT Kanpur and IIT Hyderabad to predict a peak in Covid-19 cases – also noted that while the infection rate will be high, the maximum bed requirement in Delhi will be less than 12,000.

Early data suggests the number of cases is expected to peak in Delhi between Jan. 15 and Jan. 20 to reach 35,000 to 70,000 cases per day based on a seven-day average, Sutra researchers said.

“The need for hospital beds is estimated at 12,000 at its peak. It is assumed that around 3.5% of reported cases require hospitalization for 5 to 8 days, ”said projections, given to the Delhi government.

Currently, with less than 1,600 Covid-19 patients hospitalized, Delhi has more than 12,500 free beds, well below the peak admissions predicted by the IIT model. In addition, the Delhi government can increase the number of Covid-19 beds in the city to 37,000 within days if needed, with a broader plan to expand healthcare infrastructure to accommodate 65,000 hospitalizations currently underway. .

In Mumbai, while the peak of cases is expected to be around January 15-20, the number of cases is expected to reach around 30,000 to 60,000 per day, and the need for hospital beds is also estimated to be around 10,000 to its peak.

“What’s important to note here is that there will only be about 12,000 hospital admissions, even during the peak period. The Delhi government must monitor hospital facilities. The numbers are not as alarming as they were in Wave 2 … Our estimates project the worst-case scenario, so the situation is unlikely to be any worse than this, ”said Dr M Vidyasagar, National President of SERB, IIT-Hyderabad and member of the Sutra consortium.

These forecasts are regularly monitored so that health infrastructure can be prepared for peak loads, Delhi government officials said.

“We are monitoring the cases very closely and the peak in Delhi is likely within the next 7-8 days. However, we reiterated that the intensity of the infections is mild, so the need for intensive care unit (ICU) beds, ventilators, and oxygen may be lower in Omicron infections than we do. saw during the Delta Wave, ”an official said. , asking for anonymity. “But that doesn’t mean we get careless. Our goal should be to keep peak infections as low as possible. “

The bed occupancy rate in Delhi for Covid patients is less than 10% and the capital has also significantly immunized people, said Dr Suneela Garg, professor of excellence (community medicine) member of the working group of the Lancet Commission Covid India. The high vaccination rate along with the use of relatively higher masks is expected to reduce infections in Delhi, and the number of daily infections could reach around 35,000, she said.

“In Delhi, over 85% of people received their first dose of vaccination. The HIV status in Delhi was also around 90% and our use of masks is also better, ”said Dr Garg. “While we expect the number of cases to increase rapidly around January 15, the peak in daily cases is expected to be around 30,000 to 35,000. That said, the infection period is currently around five. days, so the drop in cases will also be as rapid. “

Delhi reported 20,181 cases on Saturday, with the positivity rate reaching 19.6%.


  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR

    Soumya Pillai covers the environment and traffic in Delhi. A journalist for three years, she grew up in and with Delhi, which is often reflected in the stories she tells about life in the city. She also enjoys writing about social innovations.
    …See the details

Carol N. Valencia