India facing 3rd wave of COVID-19, peaking in February: Scientists

A worker handles an oxygen cylinder at a COVID-19 isolation center being prepared as a precaution due to the Omicron variant at the Commonwealth Games Village (CWG) sports complex in New Delhi on Tuesday.
Image Credit: Bloomberg

New Delhi: A multitude of studies by Indian scientists show that amid the increase in Omicron cases, the third wave of COVID-19 took hold in India from mid-December and could reach its peak in February of next year.

A peer-review study led by a team of researchers from the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT), Kanpur used a statistical methodology based on fitting a mixture of Gaussian distributions – based on a clustering algorithm for estimate the parameters.

The third wave was predicted using data from the first two waves of the pandemic. The team also used data from different countries that are already facing the third wave, modeling their daily case data and predicting the impact and timing of the third wave in India.

“The report predicts that India’s third wave of COVID-19 will begin around mid-December 2021 and that cases will peak in early February 2022,” Subhra Sankar Dhar, associate professor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, wrote in the document.

A separate study led by a joint team from IITs Hyderabad and Kanpur is based on the Sutra model, which tracks the country’s Covid-19 trajectory.

According to Professor M. Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad and Maninda Agrawal of IIT Kanpur, the number of daily cases is expected to increase as Omicron begins to replace Delta as the dominant variant.

Time to be careful or India will be in trouble: Expert

With over 200 cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in India, health experts treating patients infected with the virus say the cases so far are mild and the cure rate is high but it is high time to be careful otherwise India will be in trouble.

The country has reported 213 cases of Omicron so far, with two states – Maharashtra and Delhi – and surpassing the number of cases.

Speaking to ANI, Dr Vivek Nangia, Senior Director and Head of Respirology, Max Hospital, Saket Complex, said: “At the moment we have asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients and no significant symptoms or complications. has only developed so far. Admitted patients do not even need oxygen or any other IV medication.

He said most of omicron’s patients have a history of travel from at-risk countries or other countries. In accordance with government standards for omicron patients, institutional quarantine of these patients should be followed due to its high rate of transmissibility.

“All patients admitted here have been asked to go into institutional quarantine by the government. These are the travelers returning from other countries like the UK who tested positive at the airport and requested an institutional quarantine. So far they have all had very mild or no symptoms, ”Dr Nangia said.

He added that the mild symptoms of omicron are fever, body aches, sore throat, cough and cold, which are similar to the delta variant from India which has become the dominant strain in the world.

The health expert also thinks that with the arrival of the holiday season, the numbers will increase.

“As things are going, we are already seeing an increase in a number of cases. Initially we have seen 20-30 reported cases, now we are seeing hundreds. The number of cases will continue to rise, especially due to the upcoming holiday season. Plus, with people moving, I’m sure we’re in trouble, ”he added.

“It is high time that we all be careful and follow all the behavior of the COVID protocol, otherwise we will have similar problems again at the beginning of this year,” said Dr Nangia.

Modi to hold Covid review meeting on Thursday

Amid growing Omicron cases, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will hold a review meeting on Thursday on the Covid situation in the country.

Meanwhile, the Center said the new Covid Omicron variant is three times more transmissible than the Delta variant.

The Center asked states to review emerging data on the population affected by Covid-19, geographic distribution, hospital infrastructure and its use, workforce, notification of containment zones and enforcement the perimeter of the containment zones at the district level. The Center also called on states to formulate a strategy that can ensure that the infection is contained at the local level itself before it spreads to other parts.

Carol N. Valencia