OCTA predicts COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila will peak in seven days

MANILA, Philippines — Private think tank OCTA Research predicts COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila will peak in seven days as indicators such as growth rate and reproductive number decline despite the continued increase in cases.

“With the current rate of decline, the peak in the NCR (National Capital Region) could occur within seven days,” OCTA said in a bulletin Saturday.

He said that while COVID-19 cases in the capital region increased further last week, they did so at a lower growth rate of 28% compared to 41% the previous week.

The reproduction number, or the number of people who can catch the virus from an infected person, in Metro Manila also fell to 1.38 from 1.49 as of July 5.

Metro Manila saw a higher seven-day average during the week of July 9-15, when it recorded an average of 802 cases per day compared to 624 cases per day from July 2-8.

This brought the average daily attack rate, or the number of new cases per 100,000 people, to 5.57, near the “moderate” threshold set by the Department of Health.

“This current surge is still far from the levels of January’s Delta surge and Omicron surge, and hospitals are unlikely to fill up,” OCTA said, while advising the public to take the necessary precautions.

OCTA reported that Metro Manila’s healthcare utilization rate remained “low” at 29.6% with 1,827 beds occupied and intensive care occupancy for COVID-19 cases. 19 also remained “low” at 29.6% with 210 beds occupied.

The Health Ministry reported on Friday that the weekly positivity rate in Metro Manila had jumped to 13% from 10% nationwide, but maintained that the capital region and the rest of the country were still at “low risk”. — Xave Gregorio

Carol N. Valencia