Octa Rewinds NCR’s “Peak” Projections

INDEPENDENT Octa Research has backtracked after previously forecasting that the National Capital Region (NCR) would already see the peak of the latest outbreak of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) this week.

In a social media post, Octa colleague Dr Guido David said they could no longer predict when the NCR would see the peak of Covid-19 cases.

“A few days ago we reported that the daily positivity rate in the NCR may have peaked,” David said. “It is unclear at this time when the peak will be reached in the NCR.”

David said this was after the positivity rate in the region saw a trend reversal during the week.

“On July 15, the daily positivity rate reached 14% and the following three days showed lower daily positivity rates,” he said.

“However, the positivity rate jumped on July 19 and is now showing an upward trend, which reached 14.6% on July 20,” he added.

Worse, says David, is that it is unclear why the surge in the NCR appears to have been prolonged.

“It is not yet clear what is driving this change in trend,” he said.

“Cases are now increasing in many parts of the country,” David added.

Earlier in the week, David expressed his belief that the latest Covid-19 surge was “nearing its endgame” in the NCR.

But on Wednesday, July 20, Health Ministry official Maria Rosario Vergeire said their own projections show cases in the NCR continuing to rise by the end of July. (HDT/SunStar Philippines)


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