Peak Bear – Trusted Nodes

It’s November, usually the worst month in a bear’s first year, when everything heats up and desperation sets in.

But, don’t despair. Emotionally you all are, there’s nothing you can do about it, just keep a cool head.

Sure, some of you are bankrupt FTX, some are almost there Genesis, some are long gone, Luna, and some deny going bankrupt, lots of miners.

Everyone is sad after a year of beatings, and it just keeps falling apart. It won’t stop until it does.

It’s almost December, usually the best time to buy during a bear’s first Christmas. This time so far was precisely about stocktaking as before, so everyone’s guessing if the Christmas bit will also apply.

Hodl however, on principle. We should try to keep 50% ownership of crypto in public hands for as long as possible.

Our grandfathers were forced to give up their gold. Yet some of them managed to pass on gold coins, alas the moms sold them for color TV.

The public now holds a tiny share of gold ownership, more in bank and government coffers.

This story could be repeated with bitcoin in the future. Institutional investors will most likely continue to accumulate. At some point they will probably hit 80%, as they have for everything else.

But for now, we have a choice whether or not to give it to them, and at what cost. It’s hodl, the principle, except that minors don’t have this choice and so we have the yoyo.

Crypto is very valuable, however. It was worth $3 trillion at the top, or the entire GDP of the UK.

In the despair here below, it is very easy to forget many. Everyone sees how high the price was and how small it is now, and despairs.

It’s part of the game. Nakamoto clearly designed bitcoin tokenomics to make a point about the wider economy: that manipulation of the money supply is the cause of the ups and downs.

That he has played so well so far is curious, and the continued failure to value him is even more interesting.

We thought this time around we might be on a fast pace since we have these sophisticated investors and their tons of cash that can be used to value alas it looks like bear cleanup needs this November finale for this sweet desperation.

In the absence of complete information, it is of course strange to suggest mathematical laws, direct cause and effect, which is why we insist more on the principle to circumvent this.

It is the only asset that can be used as a digital medium of exchange outside of the banking and fiat system.

That in itself gives it immense value, and its volatility is not something unique. The Turkish lira did even worse than bitcoin. The Venezuelan peso is now in its 6th year of devastating hyperinflation. Lebanese money, Sri Lankan money, well both apparently have no money at all.

The British pound was worth two for one dollar, now it is close to parity. Sure, it happened over a decade, but in just one year the dollar gained a lot and many currencies lost a lot.

Bitcoin at least tends to be volatile in both directions, incredible as it may seem in this desperation. Whereas fiat, by definition, is only targeted downwards: 2% devaluation per year.

And yet, in some ways, many want bitcoin just for fiat, which is where the ponzi accusation comes from, its premise being that bitcoin has no value on its own.

A global payment network with built-in accounting and clearinghouses where there is no protocol-level manipulation as a btc is still a btc, is a silver upgrade.

Its value derives from its function, which we have summarized above. It also has a return, although in a different sense than the debt-based business in that the desire or need to use bitcoin directly affects its price if there is an increase or decrease. of this use.

While stocks are an artificial concept that in theory should not reflect a company’s profitability or loss, bitcoin is more concrete in that bitcoin is both the product and the stock.

Money is therefore used at least as an alternative and in some countries as an option to participate in global trade.

From this stems a whole ecosystem of services to facilitate this use, and some of these services are not an upgrade, but rather the equivalent of putting a scanned document on a website and calling it the Internet.

They are centralized databases that can be manipulated at will, unlike bitcoin, the protocol.

Justin Sun apparently wants to bail out one of them, the bankrupt FTX, although he seems to be talking more about buying their assets at the cost of bankruptcy. according at WSJ.

Andrew Keys, who was second in command to Joseph Lubin and is now at Darma Capital, wants to buy all of the Genesis eth, stating:

“I am interested in acquiring all Ethereum assets from Genesis Trading and Digital Currency Group.”

All. Why not, they are on sale. But, it is despair. Holding is very difficult right now. Some very unlucky ones might even have to sell to cover necessary expenses.

We have warned in these pages in the spring to get out unless you are sure you don’t need to touch the assets. Alas, you cannot predict the future and what might happen.

Hopefully there won’t be many who are so unhappy, though. For some there will be forced detention, and maybe FTX bankruptcy will work as well as MT Gox for them because FTX has some strengths.

This is crypto, a game of ruthless survival while opening the frontiers to deliver raw value in real new innovation.

And it’s because so much of this innovation is something that’s never been done before that it takes time, with second coats in particular.

Little crypto is the iteration, at this point. Oddly, this prompts the criticism that there is nothing in crypto, or there used to be. Well, that’s a tough thing and unless you look at the pipelines, it’s not a very noticeable thing.

But, it’s the season so they can say what they want. All we would say is don’t despair, even if it’s the stage of despair. A phase of desperation that has just begun, it may last a few months, but it has always been crypto.

It’s a cutthroat asset class because it’s so unlike anything else or anything the world has ever seen.

It is a pure asset, the most abstract of abstractions for the concept of money. Designed like in a laboratory to have all the economic qualities you want, but no scalability.

This makes it unique and it is also a power as well as a control over the measurement and storage of value.

A real ruler, which does not increase its centimeters or inches according to what a committee might say, but keeps them fixed.

So despair all you want, just know that crypto history hasn’t fully begun yet, and so far the only way to beat this crypto game is to hang in there.

Carol N. Valencia