US shale could peak in 2024: energy aspects

U.S. crude oil production from shale basins could peak in 2024, a new note from Amrita Sen of Energy Aspect has warned.

The memo referred to five U.S. crude oil producers who plan to cut rigs early this year due to inflation. The news comes as the United States shows signs of desperation to mitigate high gasoline prices at the pump by releasing millions and millions of barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and trying – and failing – to force OPEC+ to keep production stable. These measures replace the increase in its crude oil production.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that U.S. crude oil production in the seven most prolific shale basins will rise 132,000 bpd from September levels of 8.983 million bpd, according to the latest productivity report. drilling published mid-September. All eyes will be on the latest version of the EIA report, which will be released on Monday.

Not so long ago, the United States played the role of a rotating producer in world oil markets, able to match, step by step, OPEC’s production cuts by increasing its own production. But the United States has struggled to increase production this year, after seeing steep declines during the pandemic.

So far this year, the United States has managed to increase its total crude oil production by 200,000 bpd, with the White House deciding to release more than one hundred million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to fill the void left by the United States. Inability of States to restart production.

If the US shale peaked in 2024, it would find itself in exactly the same position that OPEC+ feared it would find itself in: a position in which it is unable to meet market needs.

By Julianne Geiger for

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Carol N. Valencia